Ghana Could Beat 2026 Target by September – Merban Capital Analyst Predicts
Nelson Cudjoe Kuagbedzi Credits Cedi Stability, Tight Monetary Policy, and T-Bill Performance for Rapid Disinflation
Ghana could achieve single-digit inflation as early as September 2025, well ahead of the government’s mid-2026 target. That’s according to Nelson Cudjoe Kuagbedzi, Head of Finance at Merban Capital, following the Ghana Statistical Service’s announcement that inflation dropped to 13.7% in June 2025, the lowest level since December 2021.
Speaking on the development, Kuagbedzi attributed the sustained disinflation to three critical factors: the relative stability of the cedi, the Bank of Ghana’s firm monetary policy, and attractive yields on Treasury bills, which continue to soak up excess liquidity from the financial system.
“All these three factors have contributed to the disinflationary pressure,” he said. “And this can continue into the third quarter, where we may end up hitting single-digit inflation.”
■ Businesses, Consumers Stand to Benefit
Kuagbedzi noted that achieving sub-10% inflation would be a significant milestone that could stimulate renewed investor confidence, reduce the cost of living, and offer relief to businesses struggling with high input prices.
“This is good news for businesses, good news for individuals, and good news for the government,” he emphasized. “We’re likely to see increased activity in the money market as inflation falls.”
■ Ahead of Schedule
Ghana’s official end-of-year inflation target stands at 11.9%, but with the economy recording 13.7% by mid-year, some analysts now see the government’s forecast as conservative.
Kuagbedzi remains optimistic that macroeconomic stability, if sustained, will continue to support the downward inflation trajectory, paving the way for lower interest rates and potentially more affordable credit access for the private sector.
“If the current macroeconomic conditions persist,” he said, “we’re on course to beat the target by a wide margin—potentially unlocking new momentum for economic growth.”
As the third quarter unfolds, economists and policymakers alike will be watching closely to see if Ghana can indeed pull off its fastest return to single-digit inflation in nearly four years.
