Opta Supercomputer Predicts Odds of Teams Winning 2026 FIFA World Cup, Ghana Black Stars at 0.04%
A recent forecast by Opta’s supercomputer has sparked debate among football fans in Ghana and beyond. The model, which ran thousands of simulations ahead of the tournament draw, has given the Black Stars just a 0.04% chance of lifting the trophy, placing them far outside the group of favorites.
Damian Owusu 
As anticipation builds for the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America, a recent forecast by Opta’s supercomputer has sparked debate among football fans in Ghana and beyond. The model, which ran thousands of simulations ahead of the tournament draw, has given the Black Stars just a 0.04% chance of lifting the trophy, placing them far outside the group of favorites.
Ghana, four-time African champions, has been drawn into Group L alongside England, Croatia, and Panama. England, one of the tournament’s heavyweights, was rated with an 11.8% chance of winning, while Spain (17%) and France (14.1%) topped the list of contenders. Defending champions Argentina were given an 8.7% chance, with Portugal (6.6%) and Brazil (5.6%) also considered strong challengers.
The supercomputer’s bleak assessment stems from Ghana’s recent struggles:
Failure to qualify for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, despite being grouped with Angola, Niger, and Sudan.
A poor run-in friendlies, losing three of four high-profile matches in 2025.
Concerns over consistency and cohesion under coach Otto Addo.
These setbacks have left analysts skeptical about Ghana’s ability to compete against Europe’s elite.
Across Africa’s nine representatives, Morocco leads with a 1.1% chance, followed by Senegal at 0.6%. Ghana’s 0.04% prediction highlights the uphill battle facing the continent’s teams in 2026. Despite the numbers, optimism remains. Sports broadcaster Stephen Zando noted that tournaments often produce underdog stories: “Nobody rates Ghana’s chances of winning the World Cup, so I am not surprised with the probability given. However, the Black Stars have the tools to perform such a task if Otto Addo gets his act right and the players deliver at their best.”
Coach Otto Addo himself has expressed confidence, calling the draw “tough” but insisting that Ghana can rise to the challenge.
Ghana’s best-ever World Cup run came in 2010, when they reached the quarterfinals and narrowly missed out on a historic semi-final spot. For many fans, simply advancing past the round of 32 in 2026 would be considered a significant achievement. With a promising talent pool and the possibility of foreign-born players joining the squad, the Black Stars may yet surprise the world.
