Opta Supercomputer Names Likely Champions for the 2026 FIFA World Cup
As the countdown to the 2026 FIFA World Cup intensifies, Opta’s supercomputer has delivered its verdict on who is most likely to lift football’s most coveted trophy. In a tournament set to feature 48 teams for the first time in history, the model has placed Spain at the top of the list with a 17% chance of winning.
Damian Owusu 
As the countdown to the 2026 FIFA World Cup intensifies, Opta’s supercomputer has delivered its verdict on who is most likely to lift football’s most coveted trophy. In a tournament set to feature 48 teams for the first time in history, the model has placed Spain at the top of the list with a 17% chance of winning.
Spain, reigning European champions, are tipped as favorites thanks to their well-balanced squad. With a deep pool of midfield talent, a world-class forward line, and no glaring weaknesses, Luis de la Fuente’s side are seen as the team to beat. Their tactical discipline and recent success in continental competition have reinforced their standing as frontrunners.
France (14.1%): The 2018 champions and 2022 runners-up remain formidable, led by Kylian Mbappé, who is chasing his second World Cup crown.
England (11.8%): With a golden generation of talent, Gareth Southgate’s men are considered strong contenders to end their 60-year wait for another World Cup triumph.
Despite being the reigning champions, Argentina was given just an 8.7% chance of defending their title. Lionel Messi continues to inspire La Albiceleste, but the supercomputer suggests that Europe’s giants may have the edge in 2026.
Portugal (6.6%) and Brazil (5.6%) are seen as outside favorites, both boasting squads rich in attacking flair.
Several dark horses, including Germany and the Netherlands, also feature in the top ten but with lower probabilities.
While simulations provide a statistical outlook, football history is filled with upsets and underdog stories. The expanded format of the 2026 World Cup, hosted across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, could pave the way for unexpected breakthroughs.
